Recently, the managers of the Dow Jones Industrials made the decision to change three of the 30 components in the index. These types of changes take place every few years as the managers deem necessary to keep the index representative of the American economy. (Click here for a history of the Dow companies[i].) Of the original twelve companies, only General Electric is in the index today. It went to 20 components in 1916, and became a 30 member club in 1928.
Earlier this year I heard John Calamos comment that he was beginning to think about the next “secular bull market”. Looking at a chart of over 125 years of the Dow, it appears that the index alternates between plateaus and improvements. These sustained periods are especially evident since the injection of governmental regulations during the 1930’s & 40’s, following the Great Depression.
The index improved from 100 in 1942 to 1,000 in 1972, a gain of 1,000 percent or nearly 8% per year compounded. The index only measures the prices of the 30 components, and ignores their dividends, which currently average 2.75%.
But it took another 10 years, in 1982, before the index permanently broke above 1,000. . It didn’t stop climbing for nearly two decades, closingabove 10,000 in 1999. During this growth spurt, the 1,000 percent gain translated into 14.5% per annum.
Only time will tell if we’ve permanently moved off the most recent plateau, but we haven’t seen the Dow close below 10,000 since 2010. To have another 1,000 percent, secular bull market, matching the two previous secular bull markets, requires the index to rise to 100,000. The move from 10,000 to 15,000 is only 50%. If we’re in the next secular bull market, we have 950% remaining.
That’s a lot of growth potential.
SOURCES: Yahoo!Finance; Wikipedia; indexarb.com
The embedded hyperlink “http://bit.ly/15PrwV3”directs to Wikipedia article: “Historical components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average”
Tracking #1-206791