
Featured Posts
A Decade of Calm Julys
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
We just finished the longest bear (down) market since Elvis’ “Jailhouse Rock” was a top hit. (That was 1957-58.) How did we finish a bear market? As a reminder, a bear market is a drop of more than 20% from a recent highwater mark. From January through October last year, the S&P 500 index dropped 24%.
There’re a lot of reasons for the drop, but the main cause is the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hikes since … well, forever. This policy decision convinced almost everyone that we were going to have a recession. And we still could have one. Inevitably, there will be a recession in the future because they do come and go.
I’m not convinced that we’ll have one in the immediate future, nor that the FED’s actions will lead directly to one.
And now it’s summer.
Who wants to think about bad economics during the summer?
Most people don’t. In fact, according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, July is the least volatile month of the year for the past decade.
Here’s where the compliance people want to remind you that past performance has no bearing on future performance. In other words, this July or this summer could be a lot different.
But I’m not counting on things being a lot different this summer because while the world is in turmoil, American businesses are quietly making money. Less than during the overstimulated past two years, but still making money.
And when most businesses are making money, most workers keep working.
And when most workers are working, consumers keep spending.
And when consumers are spending … well, I learned a long time ago to never bet against the American consumer’s ability to spend money.
As a reminder, over two-thirds of the US economy is consumer spending.
Now, if we have a recession, it’ll mean lots of workers will lose their jobs. The most recent open jobs numbers indicate that there are still more open jobs than workers looking for them. In fact, the latest number of open jobs, north of ten million, is still bigger than the pre-pandemic peak, around seven million, according to JP Morgan’s Dr David Kelly.
They might not be spending it on stuff like they did in the past. In fact, there’s a fundamental shift from buying things to creating memories and enjoying experiences. That’s tough on companies selling stuff, but good for those providing services. It’ll probably take a while for the economy to sort through these changing behaviors.
In the meantime, as I mentioned, we climbed out of the bear market. That’s because from the bottom last October 14, the S&P 500 index climbed over 20%, breaking through that threshold in mid-June 2023. Once we hit that milestone, investors became more enthusiastic, and the market surged another few percent.
The markets and the economy are still a long way from record-setting numbers. I believe it’ll be a long time before we see interest rates move out of the mid-single digit range, and it’ll take some time for everyone to get accustomed to these rates.
If something showstopping happens to the economy, our clients know that we’re monitoring and adjusting as appropriate, making our best efforts to navigate these relatively calm markets.
In the meantime, enjoy the summer months.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Enduring Wealth Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Enduring Wealth Advisors, LLC and Enduring Wealth Advisors, INC are separate entities from LPL Financial.
How one Couple gets the most out of Social Security
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Randy loves the business he’s created. It was very difficult getting started, with no capital, three young kids. But the family rallied around him, helped him find good clients, and they survived. The longer he works in the business, the easier it gets to attract business…
Four Ways to Handle Your Future Long-Term Care Expenses
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Half of us will need help with activities like bathing, dressing or eating sometime in our futures; the rest of us will die before needing such Long Term Care (LTC). With at least a 50% chance of needing LTC, it is important to have a plan for obtaining the care before you are most vulnerable…
Featured Market Volatility
Teetertotter Market or Wall of Worry?
Review by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
GrandpaLand is a swing, trampoline, hammock, and a teetertotter in the shaded corner of our back yard. On Thursdays, the “littles,” as we call the grandkids under seven, spend the day with Grandma, while their respective parents get some work done…
Running Money® On the Trail – Don’t Get Bit
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
It was a little guy, about a foot long, just stretched out across the main trail. I was two steps beyond him before stopping, realizing it’s the first I’ve seen this season. Experienced runners develop a “sixth sense” about their footfalls…
Have we turned the corner?
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
When I woke up this morning, I saw the hot air balloons above the horizon to the east. I heard the rat-a-tat-tat of the neighbors’ sprinkler on the west side of the yard. Migrating downstairs, I brewed a cup of drip coffee after downing my obligatory wake-up mug of water…
Featured Financial Planning
How Can I Improve My Financial Habits?
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
“I wish I knew how to coherently describe the process of fixing your bad habits. This may be snarky, but if you spend too much, you must quit doing that.Of course, that’s like telling a person struggling with their weight to eat less. It may be obvious; it isn’t going to change their habits…
Anyone Can Do It
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Financial Independence is no more complicated than completing a marathon. It may be hard because it requires discipline, but the process for both is really quite simple, so simple in fact, that almost anyone can achieve them. Both require a bit of planning and preparation…
Interval Workouts Enhance Portfolio Risk
by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Five down, five to go. Half-way done with the workout. Interval workouts are supposed to be hard work, and they are important. They get the runner moving faster, often more efficiently, even if just for a short time and in small doses…
Featured Lifestyle
“You’re Not Listening; What You’re Missing and Why it Matters” by Kate Murphy
Review by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Often, we project our experiences into their story, and rather than gaining an understanding of their situation, we begin sharing our stories…
Rib Rub Recipe
by Mark R Tracy, MBA, CFP®
Place the ribs into a roasting pan (or you may use a cookie sheet, but be careful to avoid spillage). Inside the roasting pan, place the ribs so that they do not overlap…
Spinach Artichoke Dip
by Mark R Tracy, MBA, CFP®
Don’t remember where I found this, years and years ago, nor do I remember the official recipe, but my unofficial recipe is still good…
Most Recent
“You’re Not Listening; What You’re Missing and Why it Matters” by Kate Murphy
Review by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Often, we project our experiences into their story, and rather than gaining an understanding of their situation, we begin sharing our stories…
A Decade of Calm Julys.
By Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
We just finished the longest bear (down) market since Elvis’ “Jailhouse Rock” was a top hit. (That was 1957-58.) How did we finish a bear market? As a reminder, a bear market is a drop of more than 20% from a recent highwater mark. From January through October last year, the S&P 500 index dropped 24%.
The Hiding Place
Review by Ralph Bender, MBA, CFP®
Young and old, poor and rich, scholarly gentlemen and illiterate servant girls—only to father did it seem that they were all alike. That was father’s secret: not that he overlooked the differences in people; that he didn’t know they were there…
Blog Search
Get Our Newsletter
