“My Fellow Americans …”

Are you already weary of the latest edition of America’s quadrennial election year shenanigans? I know that this year seems worse than any in recent history … but it’s really pretty typical.

We get questions about election year impact on the stock market, and until the financial crisis, there was some similarity. The markets are typically distracted through the primaries, then again by the general election.


Source: S&P 500 index monthly returns excluding the best and worst single returns each month during US Presidential election years 1952 – 2004

By the last primary in early June, everyone knows the battle lines. It would appear that they invest accordingly. Then, four months of campaigning for the general election, including the Congressional and many state contests are resolved at the beginning of November.

I think it’s pretty evident that the markets clearly dislike uncertainty while they certainly like clarity.

During most election years, the outcome is usually uncertain until all the votes are counted.

That’s why we usually expect to see muted market activity before the elections, but clarity following them.

And, if this is indeed a typical election year, there’s no good reason to wait until after the election to review your investment portfolio.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

TRACKING #1-482314